UFC 301 odds: Opening and closing betting line movements | Pantoja vs. Erceg

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UFC 301 decreases later on this night (Sat., May 4, 2024) from within Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The occasion is a “Brazil vs. The World”-type affair from the pay-per-view (PPV) centerpiece all the method to the drape jerker. It’s “Brazil vs. Australia” in the primary occasion (which would be a set clash in a lot of other sports), with Flyweight champ, Alexandre Pantoja, staking his title against reasonably unidentified, Steve Erceg.
The co-main occasion has Brazilian blended martial arts (MMA) royalty on program with Jose Aldo returning from a faux-retirement to handle Jonathan Martinez in the Bantamweight department. Rounding out UFC 301’s PPV primary card is previous title opposition, Anthony Smith, handling the unbeaten Vitor Petrino, action fighter Michel Pereira conference Ihor Potieria and action grappler Paul Craig conference inactiveness specialist, Caio Borralho.
UFC 301’s “Prelims” later on this evening have some intriguing additions, too; with Drakkar Klose conference Joaquim Silva and Ismael Bonfim taking on with Vinc Pichel.
I’ve been viewing the odds for these bouts all week trying to find intriguing pet dogs, props and parlays. In this post, I’m going to concentrate on line motion in between now and previously today (Monday) to see where the cash is can be found in. This method you can choose if you wish to follow stated cash or fade it.

UFC 301 PPV Main Card Line Movement

UFC 301 primary eventers Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg square off.

Photo by Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC by means of Getty Images

Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+154)

The Pantoja vs. Erceg line has actually stayed the very same considering that Monday. This might show that there is lots of action on both Pantoja and Erceg, with the champ a minor preferred and the opposition a minor underdog. The odds here are reflective of Erceg being a fresh, young and intriguing opposition who is reasonably untried in UFC’s 125-pound department, however likewise somebody who most likely hasn’t revealed us what he can yet. Plenty of folks look going to ride with him on Saturday to see if they can make a little revenue off the belief that he’s trending up. The line on Pantoja — and how it has actually stayed still — informs us folks are still going to purchase Pantoja as a strong Flyweight veteran who is battle-tested and tested he can win difficult battles over long rounds. The just doubt on him is whether he’s had a lot of difficult battles on top of all the years he’s remained in the video game.
I can make an argument for either male in this one, however if I needed to choose, I’d agree Pantoja even if we’ve seen more of him.

Jose Aldo and Jonathan Martinez get spicy throughout a UFC 301 media day look.

Photo by Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC by means of Getty Images

Jonathan Martinez (-142) vs. Jose Aldo (+120)

There has actually been a bit of motion on the lines for UFC 301’s co-main occasion. Aldo has actually seen his underdog status decline a little from +136 on Monday to +120 now. I believe this reveals the general public still have fond memories of Aldo and they wish to back him to win on his return to UFC. Because of this, Martinez’s line has actually likewise moved a little. He was a -162 preferred at the start of the week, today you can get him at -142 — which ought to be interesting those who believe Aldo is too near 40 and too rusty to make a winning return to the Octagon.

Anthony Smith weighing in for UFC 301/

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC by means of Getty Images

Anthony Smith (+425) vs. Vitor Petrino (-575)

The public think Smith remains in a great deal of problem on Saturday night. The oddsmakers had him as a +390 canine on Monday, however with cash can be found in against him, his odds have actually now grown to +425. Smith — a previous title opposition — has actually been dropped in 2 of his last 5 battles. Petrino is unbeaten (11-0) and, before beating Tyson Pedro, knocked out Modestas Bukauskas cold with a tidy check hook (see it here). We’ll enter into props later on, however Petrino is presently simply +100 to win this fight by means of (technical) knockout.

UFC 301’s Michel Pereira after he beat Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 299.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by means of Getty Images

Michel Pereira (-650) vs. Ihor Potieria (+470)

Pereira’s odds have actually been slashed from -535 to -650 as public cash has actually entered on what seems like the most significant inequality of the card. Pereira has actually looked remarkable since late. Potieria, on the other hand, has actually looked horrible and appears predestined to be on the incorrect side of a highlight-reel knockout. Pereira is unfavorable odds to win by means of TKO/KO (-150). With a single bet on Pereira netting back extremely little in return, he is most likely including on numerous parlays in addition to the rest of UFC 301’s heavy favorites.

Paul Craig went blonde for us UFC 301 face-off with Caio Borralho.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC by means of Getty Images

Paul Craig (+470) vs. Caio Borralho (-650)

Speaking of heavy favorites … Borralho’s odds have actually moved from -550 to -650 over the week, most likely since he’s been taken into a lot of parlays in addition to Pereira. The self-confidence in Borralho is likely due to belief that his smothering, no-fun grappling video game will be too effective for the extremely enjoyable high-risk, high-reward grappling video game of Craig.

UFC 301 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

UFC 301’s Joanderson Brito choking out Jonathan Pearce in the UFC PINNACLE.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by means of Getty Images

Jack Shore (+150) vs. Joanderson Brito (-180)

There’s been some intriguing motion for the “Prelims,” consisting of with this fight. This one began as +124 for Shore versus -148 for Brito. However, it appears the general public are purchasing into Brito. That’s excellent news if you believe this is a close match-up and Shore can trigger the upset on opponent area.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-395)

Kowalkiewicz’s line of +330 looked a little ridiculous to me on Monday and it appears a minimum of a couple of individuals concur. Bets on the previous UFC Strawweight title opposition have actually reduced her odds to +310. I still believe that’s high provided she is on a 4-fight win streak and has actually done more in the cage, both recently and in the past, than Lucindo has. Lucindo was a -425 preferred to begin the week. If you believe this is a squash match, enjoy that line carefully considering that it might can be found in a lot more as more folks get lured to bank on Kowalkiewicz.

Elves Brener (+210) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-258)

There’s very little modification in this line. Brener was +230 on Monday, while Orolbai was -285.

Jean Silva (-162) vs. William Gomis (+136)

Fight is canceled after William Gomis looked dreadful on the scales (see that here).

Drakkar Klose was all smiles on the scales for UFC 301.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC by means of Getty Images

UFC 301 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Line Movement

Joaquim Silva (+154) vs. Drakkar Klose (-185)

Klose’s odds to beat Silva have actually truly reduced. On Monday he was -162. A couple of days prior to that he was -142. Silva’s odds have actually grown a little from +140 considering that Monday. Klose looked excellent in beating Joe Solecki with a slam in the preliminary in back in Dec. 2023 (watch highlights). That extended his win streak to 3 battles. That streak began after he was sidelined for 2 years thanks to an ACL injury.


Mauricio Ruffy (-218) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+180)

Mullarkey’s odds have actually been the most unpredictable of anybody on this card. He has actually continued to grow as an underdog, with apparently a great deal of cash heading towards Ruffy (who is making his UFC correct launching, as a 30-year-old, off the back of a Contender Series win). You might have gotten Ruffy at -175 previously today. Mullarkey began the week as a +145 canine. Remarkably, Mullarkey was a preferred when this fight was revealed. I believe Mullarkey has worth as an underdog here, considering that I’m not offered on Ruffy — the Brazilian looks rather disorderly and hittable to me.


Dione Barbosa (-238) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)

A great deal of cash aims to have actually been available in on Barbosa over the week, with her odds avoiding -205 to -238. That has actually seen Kareckaite go from a +170 canine to +195 (and I believe that will go even greater). Barbosa seems like the far better MMA fighter in this match-up and she is extremely harmful on the ground. Kareckaite seems like a kickboxer who will be overwhelmed as soon as Barbosa takes her down.

Ismael Bonfim (-535) vs. Vinc Pichel (+400)

There’s been no modification in the odds for Bonfim vs. Pichel today. Seems there are great deals of folks in both camps, betting on Bonfim as a big preferred (maybe packaged in a parlay with all the other ones) and betting on Pichel as an interesting underdog. I personally wouldn’t touch Pichel, who is over 40 now and has actually not been active enough in UFC to validate his put on a PPV.

Alessandro Costa (-130) vs. Kevin Borjas (+110)

There’s been extremely little modification on these betting lines. Costa was -125 to begin the week. Borjas was +105.

UFC 301’s Michel Pereira.

Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

UFC 301 Prop Bets And Parlays
I’ve examined the props and possible parlays for this card and listed below are some intriguing bets. Remember, however, never ever wager anything you can’t pay for to lose.

Five-choose parlay: Ismael Bonfim, Dione Barbosa, Caio Borralho, Michel Pereira and Victor Petrino (+163)

If you package together all the huge favorites on this card you still just get +163 odds. It seems like a lot requires to break your method to choose 5 battles properly, however if you wish to root for these favorites and attempt and revenue of them, this may be more secure than choosing prop bets. I believe all of these fighters will win, the only enigma for me are if Smith has excessive veteran craft for Petrino or if Bonfim attempts to cruise against Pichel and gets shocked.

Three-choose parlay: Dione Barbosa to win by submission, Elves Brener vs. Myktykbek Orolbai under 2.5 rounds, Michel Pereira to win (+740)

This is me product packaging together the 3 things I have actually liked the most today. I believe Barbosa is being underestimated as a preferred and she will have sufficient chances to send Kareckaite. I think both Brener and Orolbai can completing each other which it will occur on the early side of the fight, maybe in their very first number of ground exchanges. And it simply appears apparent that Pereira will win on Saturday any darn method he desires.

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho to go the range (+150)

Borralho is not going to opt for the surface here. Craig can just win this on the ground, so I believe Borralho will be content to simply avoid offering him any chances to that and will lay on him for 15 minutes. He’ll tap away with punches to avoid a stand, however won’t run the risk of posturing up and leaving himself open for a triangle. After the last bell rings, Borralho will wear his specifications and offer us a huge smile while the judges’ 30-27 ratings read, understanding he prevented a mistake and put in a simple night’s work to go up a wrung on the ladder at Middleweight.

Michel Pereira to beat Ihor Potieria by means of submission (+350)

There’s a likelihood Pereira comes out shooting and surfaces Potieria with a Tekken-design mix to win this bout in less than one minute (you can get +500 on this bout ending within a minute, by the method). However, let’s not believe of Pereira as simply a striking danger. The male has 7 wins by submission, including his success over Michal Oleksiejczuk last time out (which took place at 1:01 in the preliminary). Pereira won his 3rd UFC fight by submission, too (over Zelim Imadaev in 2020). If Pereira wishes to grapple, he’ll definitely have the ability to against Potieria. Pereira’s takedown precision is average at 55 percent, however Potieria’s takedown defense is woeful at 57 percent.
UFC 301 Poll Time
Which of these props and parlays do you like the appearance of the most?

Which of these UFC 301 props and parlays do you like the most?


5 choice parlay: Ismael Bonfim, Dione Barbosa, Caio Borralho, Michel Pereira, Victor Petrino (+163)

(27 votes)


3 choice parlay: Dione Barbosa to win by submission, Elves Brener vs. Myktykbek Orolbai under 2.5 rounds, Michel Pereira to win (+740)

(72 votes)


Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho to go the range (+150)

(32 votes)


Michel Pereira to beat Ihor Potieria by means of submission (+350)

(4 votes)

135 votes overall

Vote Now

Any parlays or props stimulate your interest? Hit us up in the remarks listed below.

LIVE! Watch UFC 301 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

RAUCUS GO BACK TO RIO! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) goes back to Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sat., May 4, 2024, including Flyweight champ, Alexandre Pantoja, safeguarding his belt against unbeaten opposition, Steve Erceg, in the pay-per-view (PPV) centerpiece of the night. UFC 301’s co-main occasion functions “The King of Rio,” Jose Aldo, going back to the Bantamweight department for the very first time in practically 2 years to handle Jonathan Martinez. UFC 301’s PPV primary card (see it here) will likewise include Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino, Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria therefore a lot more. It’s must-watch action! UFC 301 start time set up for 6 p.m. ET (Prelims) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV).

Don’t miss out on a single second of impressive face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will provide LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the whole UFC 301 fight card right here, beginning with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are set up to start at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) primary card start time at 10 p.m. ET (likewise on ESPN+).
To have a look at the most recent and biggest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes make certain to strike up our detailed occasion archive right here.


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